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Global wholesale finance is undergoing one of its most significant structural shifts in decades. Tighter regulation, higher-for-longer interest rates, rapid digitalization, and the growing role of private credit and fintechs are reshaping how capital is funded, priced, and distributed across borders. Together, these forces are pushing global banks away from balance-sheet-heavy intermediation toward more capital-efficient, fee-based, and partnership-driven models across lending, payments, and market activity.
Rather than acting solely as providers of capital, leading wholesale banks are increasingly positioning themselves as orchestrators within a broader financial ecosystem connecting borrowers, investors, platforms, and infrastructures at scale.
Macro and Regulatory Forces Redefining the Landscape
The post-pandemic rate cycle has delivered record global banking revenues and profitability, largely driven by stronger net interest margins. However, the consensus outlook assumes rates normalize toward long-term averages rather than reverting to the ultra-low regime of the 2010s. For wholesale banks, this supports structurally healthier margins, but it also elevates refinancing and credit risk, particularly for leveraged corporates and sponsor-backed borrowers.
At the same time, the finalization of Basel IIIoften referred to as “Basel IV”is materially increasing capital requirements for wholesale credit. Constraints on internal models, the introduction of output floors, and revisions to leverage and operational risk frameworks are reducing the capital efficiency of traditional balance-sheet lending.
In response, banks are rebalancing portfolios toward capital-light activities, accelerating credit risk distribution, and investing heavily in data, analytics, and infrastructure to manage regulatory complexity at scale.
Credit Intermediation Shifts to Private Markets
Private credit has evolved from a niche alternative into a core pillar of global credit markets. Since the global financial crisis, it has expanded beyond direct lending into asset-based finance, infrastructure, real estate credit, and other areas historically dominated by banks. This shift transfers a growing share of credit risk and return from bank balance sheets to non-bank financial intermediaries.
At the same time, the lines between broadly syndicated loans (BSL) and private credit are blurring. Sponsors increasingly “dual-track” financings through both markets, while lenders align structures, pricing, and covenant packages. For global banks, the opportunity lies less in holding risk and more in origination, underwriting, syndication, fund financing, servicing, and secondary trading of private credit assets.
This evolution reinforces an originate-to-distribute model, with banks leveraging their structuring expertise, distribution networks, and market access to remain central to the credit ecosystem.
Wholesale Payments and the Battle for Transaction Banking
Wholesale payments and transaction banking remain large and growing profit pools, with global revenues projected to reach approximately USD 645 billion by 2027, expanding at around 6% annually. However, a meaningful share of incremental growth is shifting away from banks toward fintechs, software providers, and bank-as-a-service platforms.
In small and mid-market transaction banking, up to 10% of revenues and 15% of profits are expected to migrate to these players. Non-bank payment firms are increasingly gaining direct access to payment infrastructures, while large ERP and B2B commerce platforms embed working-capital, treasury, and supply-chain finance solutions directly into client workflows.
To defend and extend their relevance, leading banks are modernizing transaction platforms with API-based architectures, real-time payments, and partnership-led distribution models embedding themselves more deeply into corporate cash, liquidity, and trade ecosystems.
Technology as an Enabler of Capital Efficiency
Technology is becoming a strategic differentiator in wholesale banking. Digital loan operations, automated syndication workflows, and data-driven credit processes are improving speed, transparency, and balance-sheet velocity. These capabilities are critical for scaling originate-to-distribute strategies and aligning bank balance sheets with private credit and capital markets investors.
Advanced analytics and AI are also being deployed to optimize risk-weighted assets, enhance stress testing, and manage leverage under the new Basel framework. In parallel, banks are investing in real-time cross-border payments, AI-enabled client service, and smarter FX, trade, and cash-management solutions to improve client experience while lowering unit costs.
The Structural Rise of Non-Bank Finance
Non-bank financial intermediation continues to expand, reshaping the structure of global credit supply and introducing new interconnections between banks, funds, platforms, and markets. While this diversification enhances system flexibility, it also creates new channels of liquidity, counterparty, and market risk.
Regulatory scrutiny and market discipline have prompted large banks to reduce reliance on wholesale funding and strengthen liquidity profiles. As a result, global wholesale finance is becoming more market-linked, multi-partner, and tightly regulated favouring institutions that can manage complexity, distribute risk efficiently, and operate at ecosystem scale.
From Balance Sheet to Ecosystem Orchestrator
The future of global wholesale finance will not be defined by balance-sheet size alone. It will be shaped by capital efficiency, data and technology capabilities, and the ability to partner across private markets, fintechs, and platforms. Banks that succeed will be those that combine origination strength with distribution power, modern infrastructure, and deep client integration, acting as trusted orchestrators in an increasingly interconnected global financial system.
Global Banking & Markets
Global wholesale finance is entering a new era.
Higher-for-longer rates, Basel III finalisation, private credit expansion, and digital platforms are reshaping how capital is funded, priced, and distributed worldwide. For Global Banking & Markets, this shift creates powerful opportunities: capital-efficient origination, smarter risk distribution, modern transaction platforms, and ecosystem-driven growth. Banks that adapt will not just intermediate capital, they will orchestrate global financial markets.
